Formula for estimating the uncertainty of manufacturer's power curve in pitch‐controlled wind turbines

This study proposes a new formula for estimating the uncertainty in pitch-controlled wind turbines regardless of the type of wind turbines or the availability of measurement data. The results obtained using a manufacturer's power curve (MPC), which is defined as the representative value of the power performance of wind turbines, may differ from the prediction results of power generation obtained using an actual power curve measured at a real wind farm. Therefore, the uncertainty of the MPC can considerably influence the calculation of power generation. However, the current methods used for uncertainty calculation either use a random constant chosen by the judgment of individual analyzers based on their experience or rely on a limited set of empirical formulas suggested through the analysis of data measured from specific wind turbines. To solve this problem, we suggest a new formula for uncertainty estimation that has general applicability. The suggested formula was validated by comparing its results with the data output measured from a real wind farm. In addition, a comparison of the real-time estimation results of wind power generation and measurement results demonstrates that the proposed formula produces more reliable results than the existing formula.