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Early Warning Signs of Imminent Thermoacoustic Oscillations Through Critical Slowing Down

Authors :
Marc Füri
Sandeep Jella
Adam M. Steinberg
Qiang An
Gilles Bourque
Source :
Journal of Engineering for Gas Turbines and Power. 141
Publication Year :
2018
Publisher :
ASME International, 2018.

Abstract

Critical slowing down (CSD) is a phenomenon that is common to many complicated dynamical systems as they approach critical transitions/bifurcations. We demonstrate that pressure signals measured during the onset of thermoacoustic instabilities in a gas turbine engine test exhibit evidence of CSD well before the oscillation amplitude increases. CSD was detected through both the variance and the lag-1 auto-regressive coefficient in a rolling window of the pressure signal. Increasing trends in both metrics were quantified using Kendall's τ, and the robustness and statistical significance of the observed increases were confirmed. Changes in the CSD metrics could be detected several seconds prior to changes in the oscillation amplitude. Hence, real-time calculation of these metrics holds promise as early warning signals of impending thermoacoustic instabilities.

Details

ISSN :
15288919 and 07424795
Volume :
141
Database :
OpenAIRE
Journal :
Journal of Engineering for Gas Turbines and Power
Accession number :
edsair.doi...........7ff9c8328a4477d1816c229c0be4d32d
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4041963