Evaluation of wind power operating capacity credit considering prediction error

The load-carrying capacity and the stability of wind power generation are different from those of conventional generation. The current evaluation method almost considers the capacity credit of each region as a fixed value, which underestimates the contribution of wind power generation to the power system adequacy. To solve this problem, the wind power continuous output model is proposed in this paper based on the nonparametric joint probability density distribution of prediction error. This model can well describe the wind power output but is complicated. Improved wind power two-state model is developed. Under the condition that expected energy not supplied (EENS) is unchangeable, various wind power operating capacity credit, defined by equivalent firm capacity (EFC), equivalent conventional generation capacity (ECGC) and equivalent load-carrying capability (ELCC), is evaluated by both models with measurements and predictions. It can be observed that the results calculated by the proposed models are similar, and they are more reasonable and effective than the existing models.