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Potential Underestimation of Future Mei-Yu Rainfall with Coarse-Resolution Climate Models
- Source :
- Journal of Climate. 31:6711-6727
- Publication Year :
- 2018
- Publisher :
- American Meteorological Society, 2018.
-
Abstract
- The amount of rainfall during June and July along the mei-yu front contributes about 45% to the total summer precipitation over the Yangtze River valley. How it will change under global warming is of great concern to the people of China because of its particular socioeconomic importance, but climate model projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) show large uncertainties. This paper examines model resolution sensitivity and reports large differences in projected future summer rainfall along the mei-yu front between a low-resolution (Gaussian N96 grid, ~1.5° latitude–longitude) and a high-resolution (N216, ~0.7°) version of the Hadley Centre’s latest climate model, the HadGEM3 Global Coupled Configuration 2.0 (HadGEM3-GC2). The high-resolution model projects large increases of summer rainfall under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) whereas the low-resolution model shows a decrease. A larger increase of projected mei-yu rainfall in higher-resolution models is also observed across the CMIP5 ensemble. These differences can be explained in terms of enhanced moist static energy advection and moisture convergence by stationary eddies in the high-resolution model. A large-scale manifestation of the anomalous stationary eddies is the contrasting response to the same warming scenario by the western North Pacific subtropical high, which is almost unchanged in N216 but retreats evidently eastward in N96, reducing the southwesterly flow and consequently moisture supply to the mei-yu front. Further increases in model resolution to resolve parameterized processes and detailed orographic features will hopefully reduce the spread in future climate projections.
- Subjects :
- Wet season
Atmospheric Science
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Global warming
Climate change
Subtropics
010502 geochemistry & geophysics
Monsoon
01 natural sciences
Climatology
Environmental science
Climate model
Precipitation
Water cycle
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 15200442 and 08948755
- Volume :
- 31
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Journal of Climate
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi...........8f2a23966d1f7417f4b9b114dc8c172e