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Operating Rules Derivation of Jinsha Reservoirs System with Parameter Calibrated Support Vector Regression

Authors :
Hai-tao Huang
Ting Zhou
Changming Ji
Source :
Water Resources Management. 28:2435-2451
Publication Year :
2014
Publisher :
Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2014.

Abstract

The reservoir optimal operation depends on not only specific characteristics of reservoirs and hydropower stations but also stochastic inflows. The key issue of actual hydropower operation is to make an approximate optimal decision triggered by limited inflow forecasts. To implement actual optimal operation of hydropower system with limited inflows forecast, this paper makes use of Support Vector Regression (SVR) to derive optimal operating rules. To improve the performance of SVR, parameters in SVR model are calibrated with grid search and cross validation techniques. The trained SVR model describes the complex nonlinear relationships between reservoir operation decisions and factors by considering both generalization and regression performance, which overcomes local optimization and over fitting deficits. Hybrid programming platform is further developed to implement system simulation. This SVR model along with simulation platform is applied to the largest hydropower base in China – Jinsha system. Three scenarios are developed for comparison: deterministic optimal operation, SVR based simulation with calibrated parameters, SVR based simulation with default parameters. Comprehensive evaluation indicates that, operating rules derived from SVR presents a reliable performance in system power generation and output processes with respect to ideal deterministic results, especially when the parameters are calibrated. Hybrid programming technique provides a feasible and compatible platform for future research.

Details

ISSN :
15731650 and 09204741
Volume :
28
Database :
OpenAIRE
Journal :
Water Resources Management
Accession number :
edsair.doi...........946de40f6b86c88475deaf843e8f0a29
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0610-6