Liver stiffness measurement predicts hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients treated with direct-acting antivirals

Background and Aim Predictive factors for hepatocarcinogenesis following eradication of hepatitis C virus by direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are unknown. The aim of the study was to investigate the relationships between liver stiffness (LS) using acoustic radiation force impulse (ARFI) erastograghy and the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients who achieved sustained virological response (SVR) treated with DAA. Methods In this prospective study, we enrolled 263 hepatitis C patients with SVR who underwent ARFI before DAA treatment. Thirty patients had previous HCC. Results The median LS value according to ARFI measurements was 1.34 m/s (range: 0.67–4.35). During the follow-up period (median: 18.1 months), development of HCC occurred in 19 patients (7.2%; HCC occurrence in 7 patients and HCC recurrence in 12 patients). By multivariate Cox regression analysis, HCC history (hazard ratio [HR]: 10.634; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.13–27.37; P = 0.001), older age (HR: 4.638; 95% CI: 1.63–13.61; P = 0.004) and higher total bilirubin levels (HR: 4.189; 95% CI: 1.66–10.60; P = 0.002) were independent predictors for the development of HCC, and higher LS value (≥1.73 m/s) at baseline was an independent predictor for HCC occurrence (HR: 8.350; 95% CI: 1.62–43.09; P = 0.011). The cumulative recurrence of HCC was statistically similar according to the degree of LS in patients who were previously treated for HCC. Conclusion The LS value at baseline is useful for predicting HCC occurrence. Thus, even if SVR is achieved, patients with higher LS at baseline must be followed carefully for HCC occurrence.