Long-Term Development of Russian Shipbuilding in View of Defense Sector Diversification Processes: Model and Forecast

The article reconstructs and analyzes trends in the development of Russian shipbuilding in 2011–2019 and assesses the long-term development potential of the shipbuilding industry in 2020–2035, with due consideration of a scenario of fast-tracking the reequipment of the technological and industrial base of the industry. The analysis showed that shipbuilding development was at its most effective in 2014–2017, and in 2018–2019 the trend changed for the worse due to changes in implementation timelines of a number of large military contracts, which lead to reduced efficiency of production. If current trends continue, the target level of shipbuilding industry growth specified in the Strategy of Shipbuilding Industry Development for the period up to 2035 cannot be achieved. Support measures need to be reoriented to proactive modernization of the technological and industrial base of the industry, which includes increasing the number of shipbuilding yards designed for construction of large vessels.