The (In)effectiveness of regulatory policies in higher education—The case of access policy in Portugal

In recent years there has been a tendency to deregulate higher education systems, allowing them to follow the interplay of the supply and demand forces instead of shaping it through strong government regulation. One of the areas where these regulatory changes may have a more significant impact is that of access policies. In this article, we analyse a policy change in Portugal aimed at steering students’ behaviour and promoting greater institutional and geographical dispersion. This study discusses the effectiveness of this approach, namely by comparing its actual results with a simulation of what would have happened if there were no changes in the access system. We discuss to what extent the policy has had the impact it was expected or if students have reacted in a way that has undermined the intended policy objectives and draw some conclusions about the complexities of regulating students’ demand.