Hydraulic Power Engineering Under Conditions of Probable Climate Changes

Problems associated with the effect of climatic and hydrologic characteristics (temperature, precipitation, river run-off) within the Russian landmass and prediction of the performance of water-power entities under these conditions are examined. At the present time, the world's scientific community is of the common opinion that climate changes are occurring on Earth. In a paper presented by the Russian Hydrometeorolo- gic Institute (1), it is noted that "comparison of model calcu- lations with data derived from observations of the tempera- ture of the air in the near-earth atmosphere yields convincing arguments in favor of the anthropogenic nature of global warming, whereby the effect of anthropogenic activity on the temperature of the air is manifested not only in global changes, but also on a continental scale." A large part of the Russian landmass f alls within a region of significant observ- able warming. During the period from 1976 through 2006, the increase in mean annual air temperature with respect to Russia on the whole was 1.33°C for the 31 years, i.e., ex- ceeded the average warming for a 100-year period, which had ranged from 1.00 to 1.29°C. Figure 1 shows the dynam- ics of the variation in mean annual air temperature in Russia during the 20th century. It is apparent from the plot that a particularly rapid increase in temperature was observed in the past 30 - 35 years Global warming of the climate may create, and has al- ready created serious economic, political, and social prob- lems both for Russia, and also for many countries of the world. It should be pointed out that in a zone of global warm- ing, the range of temperature fluctuations also increases. Values of both extremal low, and also extremal high tempera- tures are increasing. The wind regime and moisture regime are becoming more extremal in individual regions.