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The impact of the Asian crisis on the behavior of US and international petroleum prices

Authors :
Huimin Li
Shawkat Hammoudeh
Source :
Energy Economics. 26:135-160
Publication Year :
2004
Publisher :
Elsevier BV, 2004.

Abstract

The strong long-run relationships among the petroleum spot and futures prices have weakened after the Asian crisis as manifested in less co-integration among these prices. In the post-crisis period, the directional causal relationships have either changed the direction as in the case of WTI crude or weakened somewhat as in the case of NYMEX gasoline and heating oil. These changes should complicate the job of those who try to benefit from predicting the movements of petroleum prices after the Asian crisis. In the international gasoline spot markets, movements in the NYMEX gasoline price are found to precede movements in the Gulf Coast and Rotterdam gasoline prices in the pre-crisis period, and the movements of these prices and those of the Singapore price in the post-crisis period, implying that the NYMEX price is the gasoline leader in both periods. The Monday/Friday day-of-the-week effect is only significant for the NYMEX gasoline 1-month and 3-month futures prices and the Gulf Coast gasoline spot. Economic and political shocks related to the spot prices have greater impacts on all prices than shocks related to the futures prices, regardless of the petroleum type and the time period.

Details

ISSN :
01409883
Volume :
26
Database :
OpenAIRE
Journal :
Energy Economics
Accession number :
edsair.doi...........a53696dc3d24056aee03532a9ee78627
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-9883(03)00046-x