A novel method for evaluating proneness of gas outburst based on gas-geological complexity

The gas outburst, resulting in substantial economic losses and even casualties, is the biggest obstacle in coal mines, mostly caused by an imbalance of gas-geological structure. For accurately measuring this proneness, in this paper, a novel evaluation method was proposed based on the gas-geology theory. In this method, a standardization model of statistical units was presented first, which was used to standardize and quantify the 12 chosen gas-geological factors; and then, an associated function was established for computing the gas-geological complexity index (GCI). With increasing GCI values, the evaluated area was divided into four grades: simple, medium, complex, and extremely complex region, in which the associated proneness of outbursts was SAFE, POTENTIAL, HIGH, STRONG, respectively. Taking the XueHu Coal Mine as an example, site verification was carried out with a good result. Research and application indicate that (1) gas outburst is unbalanced and closely related to the complex of the gas geological structure, showing a greater GCI leads to a higher outburst possibility; (2) the most likely area for the gas outburst is the extremely complex region and the transition zone between adjacent areas with different GCI grades; (3) upgrading-targeted control measures are the best way for preventing and controlling disasters caused by the gas and outburst unbalanced distribution. This novel method provided a reliable quantity approach for predicting and zonally managing gas outbursts and improving the effectiveness of outbursts prevention.