A quantitative risk assessment model for salmonellosis due to milk chocolate consumption in Brazil

This study intended to estimate the probability of salmonellosis in the Brazilian population due to milk chocolate consumption using a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA). The QMRA model was built to predict the fate of Salmonella through milk chocolate production. The model was divided into three modules: (a) cocoa pre-processing, (b) milk chocolate processing, and (c) milk chocolate consumption and risk characterization, in which was considered the exposure to Salmonella and the risk of illness. Sixteen scenarios were evaluated considering different levels of cocoa seeds contamination (from −2.0 to 1.0 log CFU/g and from −1.4 to 4.0 log CFU/g of Salmonella), different roasting temperature (110 °C and 140 °C) for 15–50 min, cocoa formats (whole-beans or nibs)], and the occurrence of cross-contamination after roasting (from −2.0 to 1.0 log CFU/g of Salmonella. Simulations predicted that consumption of milk chocolate contaminated with Salmonella would result in a mean number of salmonellosis cases/week of 1.3E+05 when the initial concentration of this pathogen ranged from Pert (−2.0 to 1.0 log CFU/g) and nibs were roasted at 140 °C for 15–50 min. On the other hand, when the initial concentration of Salmonella ranged from Pert (−1.4 to 4.0 log CFU/g) and nibs were roasted at 110 °C for 15–50 min; the predictions indicated a mean number of salmonellosis cases/week of 3.2E+07. The simulations also indicated that scenarios in which cross-contamination could occur (in the levels studied) after roasting did not influence the risk of salmonellosis significantly. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate the risk of salmonellosis due to the consumption of milk chocolate in the Brazilian population, which can help risk managers and the chocolate industry to enhance the food safety of this product.