Confirmation by the HD-Method

According to the leading expositions of the hypothetico-deductive (HD-)method by Hempel (1966), Popper (1934/1959) and De Groot (1961/1969), the aim of the HD-method is to answer the question whether a hypothesis is true or false, that is, it is a method of testing. On closer inspection, this formulation of the aim of the HD-method is not only laden with the epistemological assumption of theory realism according to which it generally makes sense to aim at true hypotheses, but it also mentions only one of the realist aims. One other aim of the HD-method for the realist, an essentially more refined aim, is to answer the question of which facts are explained by the hypothesis and which facts are in conflict with it. In the line of this second aim, we will show in Part II that the HD-method can also be used to evaluate theories, separately and in comparison with other theories, among others, in terms of their general successes and individual problems, where theories are conceived as hypotheses of a strong kind. In Part III and IV we will argue that the methodology of (comparative) HD-evaluation of theories is even functional for truth approximation, the ultimate aim of the realist.