Comparison of particle number size distribution trends in ground measurements and climate models

Despite a large number of studies, the effect of aerosols has the largest uncertainty in global climate model radiative forcing estimates. There have been studies of aerosol optical properties in climate models, but the effects of particle number size distribution need a more thorough inspection. We investigated the trends and seasonality of particle number concentrations in different sizes in total of for 21 measurement sites in Europe and Arctic. For 13 of those, with longer measurement time series, we compared the field observations with the results from five climate models, namely EC-Earth3, ECHAM-M7, ECHAM-SALSA, NorESM1.2, and UKESM1. This is the first extensive comparison of detailed aerosol size distribution trends between in-situ observations from Europe and five earth system models (ESM). We found that the trends of particle number concentrations were mostly consistent and decreasing in both, measurements and models. However, for many sites, climate models showed weaker decreasing trends than the measurements. Seasonal variability in measured number concentrations, quantified by the ratio between maximum and minimum monthly number concentration, were typically stronger in northern measurement sites compared to other locations. Models had large differences in their seasonal representation, and they can be roughly divided into two categories. For EC-Earth and NorESM, the seasonal cycle was relatively similar for all sites, for others, the pattern of seasonality varied between northern and southern sites. In addition, the variability in concentrations across sites varied between models, some having relatively similar concentrations for all sites, whereas others showing clear differences in concentrations between remote and urban sites. To conclude, although anthropogenic mass emissions are harmonized in models, trends in different sized particles vary among the model due to assumptions in emission sizes and differences in how models treat size dependent aerosol processes. The inter-model variability was largest in the accumulation mode, i.e. sizes which have implications for aerosol-cloud interactions.