Analysis of the Variation Characteristics of Runoff and Sediment in the Yellow River Within 70 Years

The characteristics of the runoff and sediment in the Yellow River were analysed and predicted Based on measured data of from 1951 to 2017. Initially, the phase characteristics of runoff and sediment were analysed by the cumulative anomaly curve method. After that, the trend and catastrophe of runoff and sediment are discuessed using the Mann-Kendall methods. The results revealed that the decreasing trend of runoff and sediment was significant, and the catastrophe time was 1979 and 1992, respectively. Finally, the evolution of the runoff and sediment was predicted quantitatively by using the ARMA model. The predictions indicated that, the Yellow River is likely to remain in the stage of low runoff and sediment.