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Scenario-based projections of future urban inundation within a coupled hydrodynamic model framework: A case study in Dongguan City, China
- Source :
- Journal of Hydrology. 547:428-442
- Publication Year :
- 2017
- Publisher :
- Elsevier BV, 2017.
-
Abstract
- One major threat to cities at present is the increased inundation hazards owing to changes in climate and accelerated human activity. Future evolution of urban inundation is still an unsolved issue, given large uncertainties in future environmental conditions within urbanized areas. Developing model techniques and urban inundation projections are essential for inundation management. In this paper, we proposed a 2D hydrodynamic inundation model by coupling SWMM and LISFLOOD-FP models, and revealed how future urban inundation would evolve for different storms, sea level rise and subsidence scenarios based on the developed model. The Shiqiao Creek District (SCD) in Dongguan City was used as the case study. The model ability was validated against the June 13th, 2008 inundation event, which occurred in SCD, and proved capable of simulating dynamic urban inundation. Scenario analyses revealed a high degree of consistency in the inundation patterns among different storms, with larger magnitudes corresponding to greater return periods. Inundations across SCD generally vary as a function of storm intensity, but for lowlands or regions without drainage facilities inundations tend to aggravate over time. In riverfronts, inundations would exacerbate with sea level rise or subsidence; however, the inland inundations are seemingly insensitive to both factors. For the combined scenario of 100-yr storm, 0.5 m subsidence and 0.7 m sea level rise, the riverside inundations would occur much in advance, whilst catastrophic inundations sweep across SCD. Furthermore, the optimal low-impact development found for this case study includes 0.2 km2 of permeable pavements, 0.1 km2 of rain barrels and 0.7 km2 of green roofs.
- Subjects :
- Hydrology
Scenario based
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
0208 environmental biotechnology
Storm
Subsidence
02 engineering and technology
01 natural sciences
020801 environmental engineering
Sea level rise
Environmental science
Scenario analysis
Drainage
China
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Water Science and Technology
Storm intensity
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 00221694
- Volume :
- 547
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Journal of Hydrology
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi...........b80999b01e3fd941cdc1f514c7168505