Forecasting Survival, Health, and Disability: Report on a Workshop

The authors report on a 1992 workshop convened to discuss ways to more accurately forecast mortality morbidity and disability in the United States. "Workshop discussions supported use of medium-term forecasts produced by a statistical model by Lee and Carter; qualitative adjustments should be made on the basis of medical and biological knowledge about forces likely to affect mortality." The article also includes "suggestions about further development of aggregate statistical projection models and other statistical issues about the development of models of specific diseases and causes of death and about other research needs." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)