Back to Search
Start Over
The downside risk of climate change in California’s Central Valley agricultural sector
- Source :
- Climatic Change. 137:15-27
- Publication Year :
- 2016
- Publisher :
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2016.
-
Abstract
- Downscaled climate change projections for California, when translated into changes in irrigation water delivery and then into profit from agriculture in the Central Valley, show an increase in conventional measures of variability such as the variance. However, these increases are modest and mask a more pronounced increase in downside risk, defined as the probability of unfavorable outcomes of water supply or profit. This paper describes the concept of downside risk and measures it as it applies to outcomes for Central Valley agriculture projected under four climate change scenarios. We compare the effect of downside risk aversion versus conventional risk aversion or risk neutrality when assessing the impact of climate change on the profitability of Central Valley agriculture. We find that, when downside risk is considered, the assessment of losses due to climate change increases substantially.
- Subjects :
- Risk neutrality
Atmospheric Science
Global and Planetary Change
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
business.industry
Natural resource economics
0208 environmental biotechnology
Environmental resource management
Downside risk
Water supply
Climate change
02 engineering and technology
01 natural sciences
Profit (economics)
020801 environmental engineering
Water resources
13. Climate action
Agriculture
Economics
Profitability index
sense organs
skin and connective tissue diseases
business
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 15731480 and 01650009
- Volume :
- 137
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Climatic Change
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi...........c0ab916714aaaf84ad5c5f7211adb90b