Impacts of disaster on the inbound tourism economy in Kyushu, Japan: a demand side analysis

Similar to other regions in Japan, the Kyushu region is also known to be prone to disasters. A strong earthquake in Kumamoto and Oita prefectures in the Kyushu region occurred in April 2016. Some tourist destinations closed and cancellations by a large number of travelers (both domestic and inbound) had a significant impact on the tourism industry. This paper explains a methodology to evaluate the impact of earthquake disasters on the Kyushu region’s inbound tourism economy. An IRIO table is estimated with 15 sectors and 245 municipalities and is used to calculate the output and spillover effects on seven prefectures, the capital cities, and several sightseeing cities in the Kyushu region. The inbound regional demand and backward linkage output are evaluated at monthly level after the earthquake. The findings show that Fukuoka prefecture has the highest spillover effect values totally, followed by Oita and Nagasaki prefectures. Furthermore, the highest spillover in the capital city was in Fukuoka, followed by Nagasaki, and Kagoshima. Regarding sightseeing cities, Beppu has higher spillover effects value, followed by Yufu, and Kitakyushu. Within a short period of time, the net effect of the monthly level indicates that the economic damage in Kumamoto and Beppu cities is widespread. However, the economic benefit in Fukuoka city implies less spillover effects. The results suggest that regional economic effects should be assessed at the recovery stage after a disaster based on short- and long-term aspects.