Estimation of game-level attendance in major league soccer: Outcome uncertainty and absolute quality considerations

Despite its continued growth, there are doubts about the sustainability of demand for Major League Soccer, which has a strong focus on superstar externalities through its designated player rules. Yet there is relatively limited research directly focusing on classical determinants of demand for league attendance. The authors set out to establish an estimate of the relative importance of relative quality – outcome uncertainty – and absolute quality in game attendance. They find that fans behave in ways more consistent with the loss aversion hypothesis than the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis, with considerable interest in both home and away team absolute quality.