Precipitation on abscised leaves modulates leaf‐mining beetle ( Trachys yanoi ) survivorship and population dynamics

1. We clarified the effects of early leaf abscission on the survivorship of the leaf‐mining beetle Trachys yanoi Y. Kurosawa (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) and the underlying mechanism in relation to weather conditions in Japan. Trachys yanoi is an insect pest of zelkova trees [Zelkova serrata (Thunb.) Makino (Rosales: Ulmaceae)]. Larvae burrow into zelkova leaves and feed on leaf tissue, causing early leaf abscission. 2. This study investigated the relationship between the beetle population and weather conditions over 10 years in a zelkova forest. The effects of moisture and temperature on adult emergence from early abscised leaves were examined in the laboratory and in the field. 3. The beetle population in the studied forest was negatively affected by high precipitation levels when the beetles still inhabited early abscised leaves. Fewer adults emerged from early abscised leaves under wet conditions than under dry conditions, in both laboratory and field tests. 4. These results demonstrate that early leaf abscission plays an important role in leaf‐mining beetle survivorship and population dynamics, and that the amount of precipitation when leaf‐mining beetles still inhabit early abscised leaves modulates this effect. 5. Because precipitation when leaf‐mining beetles still inhabit early abscised leaves was mainly driven by an East Asian rainy season front, the beetle population dynamics were affected by the activity of the front.