Estimating drug-induced liver injury risk by in vitro molecular initiation response and pharmacokinetic parameters for during early drug development

Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is a major factor influencing new drug withdrawal; therefore, an appropriate toxicity assessment at the preclinical stage is required. Previous in silico models have been established using compound information listed in large data sources, thereby limiting the DILI risk prediction for new drugs. Herein, we first constructed a model to predict DILI risk based on a molecular initiating event (MIE) predicted by quantitative structure–activity relationships, admetSAR parameters (e.g. cytochrome P450 reactivity, plasma protein binding, and water-solubility), and clinical information (maximum daily dose [MDD] and reactive metabolite [RM]) for 186 compounds. The accuracy of the models using MIE, MDD, RM, and admetSAR alone were 43.2%, 47.3%, 77.0%, and 68.9%, while the “predicted MIE + admetSAR + MDD + RM” model’s accuracy was 75.7%. The contribution of MIE to the overall prediction accuracy was little effect or rather worsening it. However, it was considered that MIE was a valuable parameter and that it contributed to detect high DILI risk compounds in the early development stage. We next examined the effect of stepwise changes in MDD on altering the DILI risk and estimating the maximum safety dose (MSD) for clinical use based on structural information, admetSAR, and MIE parameters because it is important to estimate the dose that could prevent the DILI onset in clinical conditions. Low-MSD compounds might increase the DILI risk, as these compounds were classified as “most-DILI concern” at low doses. In conclusion, MIE parameters were especially useful to check the DILI concern compounds and to prevent the underestimation of DILI risk in the early stage of drug development.