Analysis of dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic

In this paper, a new stochastic mathematical model for the spread of COVID-19 is formulated. First, we show the well-posedness of the proposed new stochastic mathematical model, then we investigate the stochastic dynamics of the spread of this virus in the sense of the mean-square. Conditions of extinction and persistence are obtained. Some numerical simulations are performed to strengthen the theoretical results. The sensitivity of the model with respect to the parameters involved in the system is shown to investigate the most sensitive parameter toward the highest number of infected individuals. The results reveal the mechanisms that influence the transmission and control of the disease besides the prediction and this, in turn, will be very useful for understanding the pattern of COVID-19 and other epidemic models.