Estimates of stage-specific preclinical sojourn time across 21 cancer types

e18584 Background: Cancer progression rates following diagnosis are readily measured. However, the progression rate of cancer during the preclinical sojourn time is generally unobserved. Understanding the duration of preclinical stages (“dwell time”) would allow clinicians to better identify appropriate screening intervals for cancer. We therefore elicited estimates of progression rate during the preclinical sojourn time for a wide variety of malignancies from a panel of clinical experts. Methods: We used a validated consensus methodology (RAND/UCLA modified Delphi panel method) to elicit per-stage dwell time estimates for 20 solid cancers and lymphoma from experts. Eleven experienced oncologists (general and subspecialists) from community and academic centers reviewed literature on the natural history of disease and estimated in number of years (