Abstract 12150: Incorporation of Natriuretic Peptides With Clinical Risk-Scores to Predict Heart Failure Among Individuals With Dysglycemia

Introduction: The WATCH-DM score can predict risk of heart failure (HF) in patients with diabetes. Hypothesis: Addition of natriuretic peptide (NP) levels will improve WATCH-DM performance in individuals with dysglycemia. Methods: Adults with diabetes/pre-diabetes free of HF at baseline from 4 cohort studies (ARIC, CHS, FHS, and MESA) were included. The integer- [WATCH-DM(i)] and machine learning-based [WATCH-DM(ml)] scores were used to estimate the 5-year risk of incident HF. Discrimination was assessed by Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and calibration by the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino (GND) statistic. Improvement in model performance with the addition of NP-levels was assessed by C-index, Brier score, and continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI). Results: Of the 8,938 participants included, 3,554 (39.8%) had diabetes and 432 (4.8%) developed HF within 5-years. Among 5,384 (60.2%) participants with pre-diabetes, 647 (12.0%) developed incident HF. The WATCH-DM(ml) and (i) scores demonstrated high discrimination for predicting HF risk in diabetes (C-indices=0.76 and 0.69), pre-diabetes (0.83 and 0.72), and overall cohort (0.80 and 0.71), respectively, with no evidence of miscalibration (GND=P >0.10). A greater improvement in C-index was observed with the addition of NP-levels at lower WATCH-DM(i) scores with degradation of risk discrimination at higher scores (Fig. A). Calibration was also improved with addition of NP-levels at lower compared to higher WATCH-DM(i) scores (Fig. B). A greater improvement in reclassification was observed by combing WATCH-DM(i) score with selected NP-levels assessment in low (score Conclusions: The WATCH-DM risk score can accurately predict incident HF risk in community-based individuals with dysglycemia. The addition of NP-levels improves risk prediction among adults with low/intermediate but not high HF risk.