Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Primary Biliary Cholangitis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The risk and determinants of HCC in patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) are unclear. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the incidence of HCC and risk factors associated with HCC risk among patients with PBC. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Cochrane databases and reference lists from relevant articles to identify cohort studies that examined incidence of HCC in patients with PBC from inception through November 2019. A total of 29 studies including 22,615 patients met the eligibility criteria. The median cohort size was 292 patients followed for an average of 76 months. The pooled incidence rate for patients with PBC was 4.17 per 1000 patient-years (95% CI 3.17–5.47). On subgroup analysis, the incidence of HCC in patients with PBC cirrhosis was 15.7 per 1000 patient-years (95% CI 8.73–28.24). The HCC incidence rate was 9.82 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 5.92–16.28) in men and 3.82 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 2.85–5.11) in women. Cirrhosis is the strongest risk factor for HCC in patients with PBC. Male gender was also a risk factor. Our meta-analysis supports current recommendations of HCC surveillance in patients with PBC cirrhosis. Further studies are needed to evaluate risk factors in this population.