Treatment May Change Risk Prediction for Sexual Offenders

The best predictor of sexual offense recidivism is believed to be past sexual offending. However, clinical observations of treated individuals often contradict this view. Consequently, this relationship was evaluated, using a minimum follow-up period of 18 months. The samples were adult men and consisted of 127 treatment noncompleters who terminated treatment because of inadequate motivation/unacceptable behavior, legal transfer, or by request and 150 treatment completers who underwent a minimum of 6 months of 32-35 hours per week of therapy. Sexual offense conviction recidivism and prior sexual offense convictions were significantly related in noncompleters (r = .31, p < .05) but were not significantly related in completers (r = .03, p > .05). These two correlations differed significantly (two-tailed p < .05). There was no difference (p > .05) in the average number of prior sexual offense convictions between completers and noncompleters. The findings are supportive of treatment interventions, although they question the validity of prior sexual offenses in treated offenders for release decisions and/or risk prediction.