Pathways to an oil-constrained sustainable city

The global production of conventional oil is predicted to have reached a peak plateau in the first decade of this century and will gradually decline, while demand outstrips the discovery and exploitation of new oil sources. Current oil strategies are geared to mitigation actions, but adaptive measures will become more important in the longer term future as oil supply becomes constrained. This paper reports the grounded theory research of a PhD investigation into adapting urban residential development to an oil-constrained future, in the Australian and wider context. The planning research is grounded in a general theoretical framework of sustainable development theory, encompassing urban metabolism and material flow analysis. European pre-oil economy cities form the basis for development of four grounded theories and a conceptual framework model about the characteristics of an oil-constrained sustainable city. The framework provides the basis of a tool for integrating the effects of oil constraints into the urban metabolism for sustainable planning and development. These theories and model will assist spatial planners to guide transformation of urban residential forms towards a transitional city of tomorrow and an oil-constrained city of the future.