FORECASTING THE VALUES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH FACTORS IN A REGION (A CASE OF THE UDMURT REPUBLIC)

The article deals with forecasting the values of economic growth factors in a region on the example of the Udmurt Republic. A statistically significant multiple linear regression equation (that explains the dynamics of the gross regional product from the signs-factors) is derived, a factorial forecast is developed and the results obtained are interpreted. Deflation method has been applied to eliminate the impact of price growth and GRP value has been calculated in 2007 prices. On the basis of multiple regression analysis, a matrix of paired correlation coefficients is calculated and informative factors of the model are selected. The significance of paired correlation coefficients is checked. The model is constructed in its natural form with informative factors only. The statistical significance of the regression coefficients is evaluated with the help of the Student's t -criterion, the quality of the equation is estimated through the average approximation error, which confirm the sufficiently high quality of the model. The predicted value of the result is calculated. It was found that if the current trends in the dynamics of these factors persist, we can expect the growth of real (physical volume) GRP over the period 2016-2020 by 26 % or 5.5 % annually, which meets the requirements of economic security of the region. The above information can be used to develop programs of regional economic development and design in the system of state and municipal administration.