To Get People to Adopt Tracing Applications, Minimize the Probability They Will Regret It

Experimental and field studies of repeated decisions document high sensitivity to the probability of regret; experience leads people to underweight rare risks and select the actions that provide the best outcomes in most cases. We clarify the implications of this pattern to policies designed to combat the spread of coronavirus. Our analysis questions the value of policies that encourage adherence to physical distancing guidelines without continuous enforcement. Yet, it highlights the potential of policies that encourage the use of voluntary health code applications, which estimate the risk a person is infectious. To be effective, these applications should gently enforce physical distancing, and the policies should ensure that the common experience from using the applications is better than the common experience from not using them.