Total organic carbon measurements reveal large discrepancies in reported petrochemical emissions

Oil sands are a prominent unconventional source of petroleum. Total organic carbon measurements via an aircraft campaign (Spring-Summer 2018) revealed emissions above Canadian oil sands exceeding reported values by 1900-6300%. The “missing” compounds were predominantly intermediate- and semi-volatile organic compounds, which are prolific precursors to secondary organic aerosol formation. Here we use a novel combination of aircraft-based measurements (including total carbon emissions measurements) and offline analytical instrumentation to characterize the mixtures of organic carbon and their volatility distributions above oil sands facilities. These airborne, real-time observations are supplemented by laboratory experiments identifying substantial, unintended emissions from waste management practices, emphasizing the importance of accurate facility-wide emissions monitoring and total carbon measurements to detect potentially vast missing emissions across sources.Detailed chemical speciation confirms these observations near both surface mining and in-situ facilities were oil sands-derived, with facility-wide emissions around 1% of extracted petroleum—a comparable loss rate to natural gas extraction. Total emissions, spanning extraction through waste processing, were equivalent to total Canadian anthropogenic emissions from all sources. These results demonstrate that the full air quality and environmental impacts of oil sands operations cannot be captured without complete coverage of a wider volatility range of emissions.