Predicting Lung Cancer Risk of Incidental Solid and Subsolid Pulmonary Nodules in Different Sizes

Objective Malignancy prediction models for pulmonary nodules are most accurate when used within nodules similar to those in which they were developed. This study was to establish models that respectively predict malignancy risk of incidental solid and subsolid pulmonary nodules of different size. Materials and Methods This retrospective study enrolled patients with 5-30 mm pulmonary nodules who had a histopathologic diagnosis of benign or malignant. The median time to lung cancer diagnosis was 25 days. Four training/validation datasets were assembled based on nodule texture and size: subsolid nodules (SSNs) ≤15 mm, SSNs between 15 and 30 mm, solid nodules ≤15 mm and those between 15 and 30 mm. Univariate logistic regression was used to identify potential predictors, and multivariate analysis was used to build four models. Results The study identified 1008 benign and 1813 malignant nodules from a single hospital, and by random selection 1008 malignant nodules were enrolled for further analysis. There was a much higher malignancy rate among SSNs than solid nodules (rate, 75% vs 39%, P