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Global warming projections using the human–earth system model BNU-HESM1.0
- Source :
- Science Bulletin. 61:1833-1838
- Publication Year :
- 2016
- Publisher :
- Elsevier BV, 2016.
-
Abstract
- Future climate change is usually projected by coupled earth system models under specific emission scenarios designed by integrated assessment models (IAMs), and this offline approach means there is no interaction between the coupled earth system models and the IAMs. This paper introduces a new method to design possible future emission scenarios and corresponding climate change, in which a simple economic and climate damage component is added to the coupled earth system model of Beijing Normal University (BNU-ESM). With the growth of population and technological expertise and the declining emission-to-output ratio described in the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, the projected carbon emission is 13.7 Gt C, resulting in a 2.4 °C warming by the end of the twenty-first century (2080–2099) compared with 1980–1999. This paper also suggests the importance of the land and ocean carbon cycle in determining the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. It is hoped that in the near future the next generation of coupled earth system models that include both the natural system and the social dimension will be developed.
- Subjects :
- education.field_of_study
Multidisciplinary
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Meteorology
Global warming
Population
Climate change
Global change
010502 geochemistry & geophysics
01 natural sciences
Earth system science
Atmosphere
Component (UML)
Climatology
Environmental science
Oceanic carbon cycle
education
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 20959273
- Volume :
- 61
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Science Bulletin
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi...........f1e400328539c50fe8da8932ca5aebd6