Application of system identification for the prediction of avalanche hazard

System identification methods are applied to predict avalanche hazard. A tenyear record of avalanche hazard and snow cover from Davos and Weissfluhjoch in the Swiss Alps is analyzed. Several models are estimated and validated. Dynamic models present a substantial improvement in the quality of hazard predictions compared to predictions derived from a commonly used static nearest neighbor model structure. Further possible modeling improvements are briefly discussed.