Application of a new evaluation method for floor water inrush risk from the Ordovician fissure confined aquifer in Xiayukou coal mine, Shanxi, China

As the mining depth of North China-type coal fields increases year by year, the threat of Ordovician limestone karst water damage to coal seam mining is increasing, and the risk of floor water inrush increases gradually. To ensure safe production in coal mines and avoid casualties and economic losses, it is essential to accurately predict the risk of coal floor water inrush. The traditional approach to determine whether there is risk during the mining process is the water inrush coefficient method, which has certain limitations because it does not fully consider the water yield of the aquifer and the actual hydraulic resistance of the aquitard. Therefore, in this paper, a new method was put forward and applied for predicting the floor water inrush risk attributed to the Ordovician karst fissure confined aquifer from the Permian-age coal deposits in the Xiayukou coal field, Hancheng mining area, Shanxi, China. The influence of floor water inrush is comprehensively considered from the three aspects of the aquifer’s water yield, the hydraulic resistance characteristics of the aquitard and the tectonic development of the study area. Based on the new analytic hierarchy process-linear weighted average (AHP-LWA) method, a water abundance structure index (WASI) was created using the burial depth of the Ordovician aquifer (Dp), water abundance layer (Ly) and morphological features of the aquifer (Mf). Similarly, a hydraulic resistance structure index (HRSI) model was established using aquitard thickness (Tk), number of aquifers and aquitards (Num), sand–mud ratio (SMr) and core recovery rate (CRr); additionally, fractal dimension values were used to characterize the degree of structural development. Finally, a water inrush risk evaluation model was constructed, and a contour map was drawn using the risk index method of floor water inrush (RIWI) values and revealed three water inrush risk zones: normal mining area (0.18–0.32), medium-risk area (0.32–0.38) and high-risk area (0.38–0.52). Model verification was accomplished by the actual exposed water inrush points during the No. 3 coal seam mining work, which are all located in the high-risk area zoned by the RIWI method, and the water sources are all from the third section of the Upper Majiagou strong aquifer. The results show that the new evaluation model has high prediction accuracy, small error and wide applicability, and the model meets the basic requirements of mine production safety, provides favourable technical support for floor water inrush prediction during the Carboniferous–Permian lower coal group mining above the confined aquifer and is of great significance to ensure safe and efficient production of the coal mine.