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Contrasting Transition Complexity Between El Niño and La Niña: Observations and CMIP5/6 Models

Authors :
Jin-Yi Yu
Shih-Wei Fang
Source :
Geophysical Research Letters. 47
Publication Year :
2020
Publisher :
American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2020.

Abstract

Author(s): Fang, SW; Yu, JY | Abstract: The observed El Nino and La Nina exhibit different complexities in their event-to-event transition patterns. The El Nino is dominated in order by episodic, cyclic, and multiyear transitions, but the reversed order is found in the La Nina. A subtropical Pacific onset mechanism is used to explain this difference. This mechanism triggers El Nino/La Nina events via subtropical processes and is responsible for producing multiyear and episodic transitions. Its nonlinear responses to the tropical Pacific mean state result in more multiyear transitions for La Nina than El Nino and more episodic transitions for El Nino than La Nina. The CMIP5/6 models realistically simulate the observed transition complexity of El Nino but fail to simulate the transition complexity of La Nina. This deficiency in CMIP5 models arises from a weaker than observed subtropical onset mechanism and a cold bias in the tropical Pacific mean sea surface temperatures in the models.

Details

ISSN :
19448007 and 00948276
Volume :
47
Database :
OpenAIRE
Journal :
Geophysical Research Letters
Accession number :
edsair.doi...........fe69c7eef1cfaebe6f0e0ddc7a440d63
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl088926