A combined model based on spleen stiffness measurement and Baveno VI criteria to rule out high-risk varices in advanced chronic liver disease

none 10 si Background & Aims: Recently, Baveno VI guidelines suggested that esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) can be avoided in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) who have a liver stiffness measurement (LSM) 150,000/mm3. We aimed to: assess the performance of spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) in ruling out patients with high-risk varices (HRV); validate Baveno VI criteria in a large population and assess how the sequential use of Baveno VI criteria and SSM could safely avoid the need for endoscopy. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 498 patients with cACLD who had undergone LSM/SSM by transient elastography (TE) (FibroScan®), platelet count and EGDs from 2012 to 2016 referred to our tertiary centre. The new combined model was validated internally by a split-validation method, and externally in a prospective multicentre cohort of 115 patients. Results: SSM, LSM, platelet count and Child-Pugh-B were independent predictors of HRV. Applying the newly identified SSM cut-off (≤46 kPa) or Baveno VI criteria, 35.8% and 21.7% of patients in the internal validation cohort could have avoided EGD, with only 2% of HRVs being missed with either model. The combination of SSM with Baveno VI criteria would have avoided an additional 22.5% of EGDs, reaching a final value of 43.8% spared EGDs, with