Detection of varying influenza circulation within England in 2012/13: informing antiviral prescription and public health response

Background Subnational variation of 2009 pandemic influenza activity in England has been reported; however, little work has been published on this topic for seasonal influenza. If variation is present, this knowledge may assist with both identifying the onset of influenza epidemics, informing community antiviral prescription and local health planning. Methods An end-of-season analysis of influenza surveillance systems (acute respiratory outbreaks, primary care consultations, virological testing, influenza-confirmed secondary care admissions and excess all-cause mortality) was undertaken at national and subnational levels for 2012/13 when influenza B and A(H3N2) dominated. Results National community antiviral prescription was recommended in Week 51 following national threshold exceedance. However, this was preceded up to 2 weeks by subnational influenza activity in 2/9 regions in England. Regional variation in circulation of influenza subtypes was observed and severe influenza surveillance data sources were able to monitor the subnational impact. Conclusions Evidence of virological activity in two or more regions above a threshold indicated the onset of the 2012/13 season. Subnational thresholds should be determined and evaluated in order to improve timeliness of the national antiviral alert. During the season, outputs should be reported at levels that can inform local public health responses and variation considered when retrospectively evaluating the impact of interventions.