From a logic map to a fuzzy expert system for the description of the Middle East destabilization

In this paper we present a first attempt to describe the present situation of the Middle East area by a fuzzy logic map. By it we design a fuzzy expert system that evaluate the level of destabilization in the same area. In this map are present the political and geographical "actors" that influence the level of destabilization. The connections between the "actors" are expressed in a linguistic framework, like "if the United States influence increases than the Israeli radicalism is fortified" and so on. Using this map, built by experts in International Policy and Terrorism, we have tried to translate it in a fuzzy expert system, with the idea to obtain a numerical level of destabilization of the area we have considered. Making a continuous monitoring of the situation, the system makes possible to understand the behaviour of this complex situation, and shows what are the actions that increase or decrease the destabilization. It suggests what are the actions useful to reduce this level.