Strategic Planning for Measles Control: Using Data to Inform Optimal Vaccination Strategies

Method. The MSP tool estimates measles incidence and mortality through a country-specific cohort model, using a probability of infection dependent on population immunity levels. This method approximates measles transmission dynamics without requiring detailed data that would prohibit use in low- and middle-income countries. Coupled with cost data, the tool estimates incremental costs and cost effectiveness of user-defined vaccination strategies over 5‐10 year planning periods. Results. The MSP tool produces valid estimates of measles incidence in settings with low to moderate vaccination coverage. Early adopters report that the tool facilitates decision making by minimizing the amount of time required to assess the impact of vaccination strategies on population immunity. Conclusions. By clearly illustrating what vaccination strategies can effectively protect against measles at the least cost to immunization programs, the MSP tool supports evidence-based decision making for effective and comprehensive measles control. Measles is among the most highly infectious diseases known, affecting .95% of exposed populations in the absence of vaccination. With measles case-fatality ratios (CFRs) among children ranging from ,0.1% in highincome countries to 6% in high-mortality settings, measles vaccination prevented an estimated 12 million deaths over the period 2000‐2008 among children under the age of 10