Development of a method for assessing the security of cyber-physical systems based on the Lotka–Volterra model

The paper presents the results of the development of a method for assessing the security of cyber-physical systems based on the Lotka–Volterra model. Security models of cyber-physical systems are proposed: “predator–prey” taking into account the computing capabilities and focus of targeted cyberattacks, “predator–prey” taking into account the possible competition of attackers in relation to the “prey”, “predator–prey” taking into account the relationships between “prey species” and “predator species”, “predator–prey” taking into account the relationship between “prey species” and “predator species”. Based on the proposed approach, the coefficients of the Lotka–Volterra model α=0.39, β=0.32, γ=0.29, φ=0.27 were obtained, which take into account the synergy and hybridity of modern threats, funding for the formation and improvement of the protection system, and also allow determining the financial and computing capabilities of the attacker based on the identified threats. The proposed method for assessing the security of cyber-physical systems is based on the developed threat classifier, allows assessing the current security level and provides recommendations regarding the allocation of limited protection resources based on an expert assessment of known threats. This approach allows offline dynamic simulation, which makes it possible to timely determine attackers' capabilities and form preventive protection measures based on threat analysis. In the simulation, actual bases for assessing real threats and incidents in cyber-physical systems can be used, which allows an expert assessment of their impact on both individual security services and security components (cyber security, information security and security of information). The presented simulation results do not contradict the graphical results of the classical Lotka–Volterra model, which indicates the adequacy of the proposed approach for assessing the security of cyber-physical systems