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Abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947–1957, associated with a pronounced increase in the geographical rate of disease propagation
- Source :
- Epidemiology and Infection
- Publication Year :
- 2013
- Publisher :
- Cambridge University Press, 2013.
-
Abstract
- SUMMARYThe abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947–1957, was associated with a profound change in the spatial dynamics of the disease. Drawing on the complete record of poliomyelitis notifications in England and Wales, we use a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis (swash-backwash model) to evaluate the geographical rate of disease propagation in successive poliomyelitis seasons, 1940–1964. Comparisons with earlier and later time periods show that the period of heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity corresponded with a sudden and pronounced increase in the spatial rate of disease propagation. This change was observed for both urban and rural areas and points to an abrupt enhancement in the propensity for the geographical spread of polioviruses. Competing theories of the epidemic emergence of poliomyelitis in England and Wales should be assessed in the light of this evidence.
- Subjects :
- medicine.medical_specialty
Epidemiology
Epidemiological method
Disease
Modelling
epidemics
geography
Risk Factors
medicine
Humans
Wales
epidemiological methods
England and Wales
History, 20th Century
Models, Theoretical
medicine.disease
Original Papers
Poliomyelitis
Infectious Diseases
Geography
England
Rural area
Epidemiologic Methods
Demography
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 14694409 and 09502688
- Volume :
- 142
- Issue :
- 3
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Epidemiology and Infection
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....0b54096922e2d3af9b7153812ff7ed00