The Risk of Liquefaction Associated with Water Head Fluctuation in the Low-lying Area of Tokyo

In the wide area of the eastern part of Tokyo, the ground level is less than mean sea level. This area is more vulnerable to disasters than other areas. If large flood damage such as storm surge should occur in this area, the disaster would be a long-term catastrophe. On the coast of Tokyo Bay, countermeasures have been taken by tide embankments and floodgates. However, considering the damage scale when it occurs, an analysis in this area is very important. In this area, ground settlement occurred and groundwater head dropped because groundwater excessively withdrew by the industrial purpose during the period of economic growth. Currently, the groundwater head recovers and the ground settlement has been subsided. However, due to the groundwater head fluctuation, pore water pressure distribution had been different from hydrostatic pressure distribution. Therefore, in the analysis in this area, it is necessary to consider past groundwater head fluctuation. In this research, the ground settlement and the distribution of pore water pressure are simulated from groundwater level fluctuation over the past 100 years. Then, we conducted the seismic analysis by input the distribution of effective stress calculating from the simulated ground water pressure. The sites analyzed in this research are Tokyo Sea Life Park at the mouth of Arakawa River.