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Climate Change and Food Security: The Impact of Some Key Variables on Wheat Yield in Kazakhstan
- Source :
- Sustainability, Volume 13, Issue 15, Sustainability, Vol 13, Iss 8583, p 8583 (2021)
- Publication Year :
- 2021
- Publisher :
- Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute, 2021.
-
Abstract
- In such drought-prone regions as Kazakhstan, research on regional drought characteristics and their formation conditions is of paramount importance for actions to mitigate drought risks caused by climate change. This paper presents the results of research on the spatio-temporal patterns of atmospheric droughts as one of the most important factors hindering the formation of crop yields. The influence of several potential predictors characterizing teleconnection in the coupled “atmosphere–ocean” system and cosmic-geophysical factors affecting their formation is analyzed. The spatial relationships between atmospheric aridity at the individual stations of the investigated area and the wheat yield in Kazakhstan as well as its relationships with potential predictors were determined using econometric methods. High correlation was shown between wheat yield fluctuations and Multivariate El-Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), galactic cosmic radiation, solar activity, and atmospheric drought expressed through the soil moisture index, which in turn depends on precipitation levels and temperatures. The model could be modified further so that the individual components could be forecasted into the future using various time series in an ARIMA model. The resulting integration of these forecasts would allow the prediction of wheat yields in the future. The obtained results can be used in the process of creating effective mechanisms for adaptation to climate change and droughts based on their early diagnosis.
- Subjects :
- Asia
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Yield (finance)
0208 environmental biotechnology
Geography, Planning and Development
Climate change
TJ807-830
02 engineering and technology
Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
TD194-195
01 natural sciences
Renewable energy sources
GE1-350
Autoregressive integrated moving average
Precipitation
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Food security
Environmental effects of industries and plants
Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
Crop yield
econometric modelling
food security
sustainable development goals
Arid
Kazakhstan
020801 environmental engineering
Environmental sciences
climate change
Climatology
Environmental science
Teleconnection
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 20711050
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Sustainability
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....0e7d1bd5aa72e39cfa5e7d77d1988f8a
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.3390/su13158583