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Estimating the under-five mortality rate using a bayesian hierarchical time series model
- Source :
- PLoS ONE, Vol 6, Iss 9, p e23954 (2011), PLoS ONE
- Publication Year :
- 2011
- Publisher :
- Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2011.
-
Abstract
- BACKGROUND: Millennium Development Goal 4 calls for a reduction in the under-five mortality rate by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015, which corresponds to an annual rate of decline of 4.4%. The United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation estimates under-five mortality in every country to measure progress. For the majority of countries, the estimates within a country are based on the assumption of a piece-wise constant rate of decline. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This paper proposes an alternative method to estimate under-five mortality, such that the underlying rate of change is allowed to vary smoothly over time using a time series model. Information about the average rate of decline and changes therein is exchanged between countries using a bayesian hierarchical model. Cross-validation exercises suggest that the proposed model provides credible bounds for the under-five mortality rate that are reasonably well calibrated during the observation period. The alternative estimates suggest smoother trends in under-five mortality and give new insights into changes in the rate of decline within countries. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed model offers an alternative modeling approach for obtaining estimates of under-five mortality which removes the restriction of a piece-wise linear rate of decline and introduces hierarchy to exchange information between countries. The newly proposed estimates of the rate of decline in under-5 mortality and the uncertainty assessments would help to monitor progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4.
- Subjects :
- Time Factors
Non-Clinical Medicine
Population Modeling
lcsh:Medicine
Global Health
Social and Behavioral Sciences
Sociology
Infant Mortality
Econometrics
lcsh:Science
education.field_of_study
Multidisciplinary
Child and Adolescent Health Policy
Mortality rate
Statistics
Child Health
Child, Preschool
Calibration
Child Mortality
Regression Analysis
Medicine
Public Health
Algorithms
Research Article
United Nations
Population
Biology
Death Rate
Bayesian hierarchical modeling
Humans
Time series
Statistical Methods
education
Developing Countries
Demography
Estimation
Models, Statistical
Health Care Policy
Population Biology
lcsh:R
Infant, Newborn
Infant
Bayes Theorem
Models, Theoretical
Confidence interval
Child mortality
Annual percentage rate
Statistical Theories
lcsh:Q
Mathematics
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 19326203
- Volume :
- 6
- Issue :
- 9
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- PLoS ONE
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....10a13d276fe5f9f5b6c8e88ad417d95e