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Outbreaks in care homes may lead to substantial disease burden if not mitigated
Outbreaks in care homes may lead to substantial disease burden if not mitigated
- Source :
- Hall, I, Lewkowicz, H, Webb, L, House, T, Pellis, L, Sedgwick, J & Gent, N 2021, ' Outbreaks in care homes may lead to substantial disease burden if not mitigated ', Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, vol. 376, no. 1829, 20200269 . https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0269, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
- Publication Year :
- 2021
-
Abstract
- The number of COVID-19 outbreaks reported in UK care homes rose rapidly in early March of 2020. Owing to the increased co-morbidities and therefore worse COVID-19 outcomes for care home residents, it is important that we understand this increase and its future implications. We demonstrate the use of an SIS model where each nursing home is an infective unit capable of either being susceptible to an outbreak (S) or in an active outbreak (I). We use a generalized additive model to approximate the trend in growth rate of outbreaks in care homes and find the fit to be improved in a model where the growth rate is proportional to the number of current care home outbreaks compared with a model with a constant growth rate. Using parameters found from the outbreak-dependent growth rate, we predict a 73% prevalence of outbreaks in UK care homes without intervention as a reasonable worst-case planning assumption. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.
- Subjects :
- Male
institutional outbreaks
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Care homes
030231 tropical medicine
General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
Unit (housing)
03 medical and health sciences
0302 clinical medicine
Cost of Illness
Environmental health
Intervention (counseling)
Pandemic
Humans
Medicine
030212 general & internal medicine
mathematical modelling
Pandemics
Research Articles
Disease burden
Aged
SARS-CoV-2
business.industry
COVID-19
Outbreak
Articles
United Kingdom
Nursing Homes
care home
Female
General Agricultural and Biological Sciences
Nursing homes
business
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Hall, I, Lewkowicz, H, Webb, L, House, T, Pellis, L, Sedgwick, J & Gent, N 2021, ' Outbreaks in care homes may lead to substantial disease burden if not mitigated ', Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, vol. 376, no. 1829, 20200269 . https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0269, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....11ef324d52b0eb4645d8b43d451802da
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0269