Evaluating the predictive value of measures of susceptibility to tobacco and alternative tobacco products

Background The “cigarette susceptibility index” has been adapted for other products, yet, the validity of these adapted measures–particularly among youth who have used other tobacco products–has not been evaluated. Methods We used prospective data from the Southern California Children's Health Study to evaluate the association of questionnaire measures assessing susceptibility to e-cigarette, cigarette, hookah and cigar/cigarillo/little cigar use at wave 1 (W1; 11th/12th grade) with subsequent initiation between W1 and W2 (16 months later, N = 1453). We additionally examined whether each effect estimate differed by use of other tobacco products at W1. Results Odds ratios, attributable risk%, and risk differences for product initiation among susceptible vs. non-susceptible youth were consistently higher among never users of any tobacco product than among youth with any tobacco use history. For example, susceptible (vs. non-susceptible) youth with no prior tobacco use had 3.64 times the odds of subsequent initiation of e-cigarettes (95%CI:2.61,5.09), while among users of another product, susceptible (vs. non-susceptible) youth had 1.95 times the odds of e-cigarette initiation (95%CI:0.98,3.89; p-interaction = 0.016). 60.4% of e-cigarette initiation among never users of any product could be attributed to susceptibility, compared to 19.8% among users of another product. The e-cigarette absolute risk difference between susceptible and non-susceptible youth was 21.9%(15.2,28.6) for never users, vs. 15.4%(0.2,30.7) for users of another product. Conclusion Tobacco product-specific susceptibility associations with initiation of use at W2 were markedly attenuated among prior users of other products, demonstrating reduced utility for these measures among subjects using other products.