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Decadal Prediction
- Source :
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Meehl, G A, Goddard, L, Murphy, J, Stouffer, R J, Boer, G, Danabasoglu, G, Dixon, K, Giorgetta, M A, Greene, A M, Hawkins, E, Hegerl, G, Karoly, D, Keenlyside, N, Kimoto, M, Kirtman, B, Navarra, A, Pulwarty, R, Smith, D, Stammer, D & Stockdale, T 2009, ' DECADAL PREDICTION Can It Be Skillful? ', Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 90, no. 10, pp. 1467-+ . https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1
- Publication Year :
- 2009
- Publisher :
- American Meteorological Society, 2009.
-
Abstract
- A new field of study, "decadal prediction," is emerging in climate science. Decadal prediction lies between seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer-term climate change projections, and focuses on time-evolving regional climate conditions over the next 10-30 yr. Numerous assessments of climate information user needs have identified this time scale as being important to infrastructure planners, water resource managers, and many others. It is central to the information portfolio required to adapt effectively to and through climatic changes. At least three factors influence time-evolving regional climate at the decadal time scale: 1) climate change commitment (further warming as the coupled climate system comes into adjustment with increases of greenhouse gases that have already occurred), 2) external forcing, particularly from future increases of greenhouse gases and recovery of the ozone hole, and 3) internally generated variability. Some decadal prediction skill has been demonstrated to arise from the first two of these factors, and there is evidence that initialized coupled climate models can capture mechanisms of internally generated decadal climate variations, thus increasing predictive skill globally and particularly regionally. Several methods have been proposed for initializing global coupled climate models for decadal predictions, all of which involve global time-evolving threedimensional ocean data, including temperature and salinity. An experimental framework to address decadal predictability/prediction is described in this paper and has been incorporated into the coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Model, phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments, some of which will be assessed for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These experiments will likely guide work in this emerging field over the next 5 yr.
- Subjects :
- Atmospheric Science
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Meteorology
0207 environmental engineering
Climate commitment
Forecast skill
Climate change
SEA-LEVEL RISE
02 engineering and technology
01 natural sciences
MULTIDECADAL VARIABILITY
SURFACE-TEMPERATURE TRENDS
GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL
INTERDECADAL VARIATIONS
Predictability
020701 environmental engineering
decadal predictions
MULTIMODEL-ENSEMBLE
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION
Transient climate simulation
NORTH-ATLANTIC
13. Climate action
Climatology
Greenhouse gas
Environmental science
Climate model
SOLAR-CYCLE VARIABILITY
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 15200477 and 00030007
- Volume :
- 90
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....1409a6501af19c9631b62be983c6a296