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Proportional loss functions for debris flow events
- Source :
- Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 8 (13), 2147-2156. (2013), Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus Publ. / European Geosciences Union, 2013, 13 (8), pp.2147-2156. ⟨10.5194/nhess-13-2147-2013⟩, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 13, Iss 8, Pp 2147-2156 (2013), Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2013, 13 (8), pp.2147-2156. ⟨10.5194/nhess-13-2147-2013⟩
- Publication Year :
- 2013
-
Abstract
- Quantitative risk assessments of debris flows and other hydrogeological hazards require the analyst to predict damage potentials. A common way to do so is by use of proportional loss functions. In this paper, we analyze a uniquely rich dataset of 132 buildings that were damaged in one of five large debris flow events in Switzerland. Using the double generalized linear model, we estimate proportional loss functions that may be used for various prediction purposes including hazard mapping, landscape planning, and insurance pricing. Unlike earlier analyses, we control for confounding effects of building characteristics, site specifics, and process intensities as well as for overdispersion in the data. Our results suggest that process intensity parameters are the most meaningful predictors of proportional loss sizes. Cross-validation tests suggest that the mean absolute prediction errors of our models are in the range of 11%, underpinning the accurateness of the approach.
- Subjects :
- Generalized linear model
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
risk-assessment
landslide risk
vulnerability
damage
management
regression
hazards
0211 other engineering and technologies
02 engineering and technology
01 natural sciences
lcsh:TD1-1066
Debris flow
Economies et finances
Overdispersion
Statistics
Range (statistics)
Econometrics
lcsh:Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering
lcsh:Environmental sciences
risk-assessment, landslide risk, vulnerability, damage, management, regression, hazards
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
lcsh:GE1-350
021110 strategic, defence & security studies
Hydrogeology
lcsh:QE1-996.5
Confounding
lcsh:Geography. Anthropology. Recreation
[SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance
Debris
lcsh:Geology
Economies and finances
lcsh:G
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Environmental science
Risk assessment
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 15618633 and 16849981
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 8 (13), 2147-2156. (2013), Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus Publ. / European Geosciences Union, 2013, 13 (8), pp.2147-2156. ⟨10.5194/nhess-13-2147-2013⟩, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 13, Iss 8, Pp 2147-2156 (2013), Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2013, 13 (8), pp.2147-2156. ⟨10.5194/nhess-13-2147-2013⟩
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....149b6a0a247ec4dd1b91e3cd3adfed57