Understanding the Relationship between Social Distancing Policies, Traffic Volume, Air Quality, and the Prevalence of COVID-19 Outcomes in Urban Neighborhoods

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have implemented policies to curb the spread of the novel virus. Little is known about how these policies impact various groups in society. This paper explores the relationship between social distancing policies, traffic volumes and air quality and how they impact various socioeconomic groups. This study aims to understand how disparate communities respond to Stay-at-Home Orders and other social distancing policies to understand how human behavior in response to policy may play a part in the prevalence of COVID-19 positive cases. We collected data on traffic density, air quality, socio-economic status, and positive cases rates of COVID-19 for each zip code of Salt Lake County, Utah (USA) between February 17 and June 12, 2020. We studied the impact of social distancing policies across three periods of policy implementation. We found that wealthier and whiter zip codes experienced a greater reduction in traffic and air pollution during the Stay-at-Home period. However, air quality did not necessarily follow traffic volumes in every case due to the complexity of interactions between emissions and meteorology. We also found a strong relationship between lower socioeconomic status and positive COVID-19 rates. This study provides initial evidence for social distancing's effectiveness in limiting the spread of COVID-19, while providing insight into how socioeconomic status has compounded vulnerability during this crisis. Behavior restrictions disproportionately benefit whiter and wealthier communities both through protection from spread of COVID-19 and reduction in air pollution. Such findings may be further compounded by the impacts of air pollution, which likely exacerbate COVID-19 transmission and mortality rates. Policy makers need to consider adapting social distancing policies to maximize equity in health protection.
Comment: 34 pages, 7 figures, 2 tables